Amsterdam / Sporenburg

Neighbourhood overview

Live grid conditions and forecasted transformer load.

Available range−365 days · +3 days

Transformer load Estimated

—kVALoading
Compared with the configured 400 kVA transformer limit

Connected homes

40householdsBattery fleet online
40 homes · battery + P1 model
Scaled to a 500-household transformer area

Peak overload risk i

78%Calculating
Combining available forecast inputs
Sporenburg fleetAmsterdam, NL · estimated transformer service area
Connected households (40)
Loading detailed map…
Estimated transformer service area40 anonymous household locations

Neighbourhood parameters

Forecast inputs

Transparent signals behind the overload-risk estimate.

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Weather & cloud forecast

Open-Meteo + MTG observation
—Safe seasonal fallbackCloud cover unavailable
Now·—loading+2h·—loading+4h·—loading+6h·—loading
EUMETSAT MTG refines the first hours when a fresh observation is available.
€

NL dynamic prices

EnergyZero public price API
—ct/kWhcurrent market hour24h market
00:0006:0012:0018:0024:00
Best charging hourWaiting for feedHighest price hourWaiting for feed
↘

Fleet responsePrice optimisation remains secondary to transformer headroom.

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Estimated solar production

Forecast + satellite cloud check
—kWCalculating irradiance563 kWp
Estimated forecast confidence0%
Unavailable feeds lower confidence; they never become a safe zero.
Next three daysLoading outlook
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Household demand pattern

E1A profile scaled to the selected area
00:0006:0012:0018:0024:00
AM

Morning demandHousehold start-up and breakfast load

PM

Evening peakCooking, appliances and return-home demand

×

500 householdsScenario can be adjusted in the dispatch plan

Transformer SPOR-400-01

Load forecast

00:0006:0012:0018:0024:00

Grid-first dispatch plan · 2026-10-02

Charging and discharging · selected 24 hours

Hourly control blocks combine the selected day’s solar state, E1A demand model, transformer estimate and dynamic price data when available.

Current dynamic price—EnergyZero · incl. VAT
EDGE-CASE SIMULATOR

Households in the transformer area

Demand and assumed solar capacity scale with the neighbourhood. The connected battery fleet remains fixed at 40 homes, 32 kW and 60 kWh.

500householdsRecalculating…
100
small area500
baseline1,000
edge case
Demand scale1.00×Assumed solar563 kWpBattery fleet40 homes · fixedTransformer400 kVA · fixed

Signal correlation

Why the dispatch changes through the day

All three charts share the same 24-hour axis. The light background tint shows the action selected for each hour.
ChargeReserveDischargeNormal

Dynamic electricity price

Hourly EnergyZero price, including VAT

Dynamic price
1.000.500.00ct/kWhNOW00:0006:0012:0018:0023:00

Predicted solar production

Weather forecast with the short-term satellite correction when available

Expected PV
1.000.00-1.00kWNOW00:0006:0012:0018:0023:00

Neighbourhood grid usage

Grey dashed = normal usage. Bright green = usage corrected by the batteries.

Battery-adjusted curve changes 0 of 24 hours · maximum impact 0.0 kVA
Without batteriesWith batteries — green
1.000.00-1.00kVANOW00:0006:0012:0018:0023:00

iPositive grid usage is import; negative grid usage is export. These are selected-day estimates, not direct transformer or battery telemetry.

Charge to absorb PVNo scheduled window
Hold / reserveNo scheduled window
Discharge for evening useNo scheduled window
Price rangeWaiting for live prices
Household demand—
Estimated PV—
Peak before control—
Battery throughput—
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Charge · absorb exportReserve · avoid chargingDischarge · prevent importNormal optimisation

iThis is a live simulation, not battery telemetry. Price optimisation remains secondary to transformer headroom.

What informs the battery plan · 2026-10-02

The clearest available picture for this day

Weather, household demand and energy prices help the fleet decide when to charge, wait or discharge. Open any card to view or change its source.

Planning confidence 0%
+→
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USED FOR BATTERY PLANNINGCalculating solar estimate

Battery plan uses the weather forecast only

iThis estimate helps determine how much battery capacity to keep available for solar and when charging should begin.

How the satellite cloud check worksMTG compares observed sunlight with the Open-Meteo forecastMethod
1 · FORECAST AT OBSERVATION TIME—

Open-Meteo’s expected surface irradiance after modelled cloud effects.

2 · MTG OBSERVATION—

Satellite-derived surface irradiance; accepted only when no older than 45 minutes.

3 · DIFFERENCE—

Positive means more sunlight than forecast; negative means thicker cloud than forecast.

4 · SHORT-TERM CORRECTIONForecast only

Full correction now, fading over the next few hours as the observation becomes less predictive.

ΔG = G_MTG − G_forecastw(h) = e^(−h / 1.5) · G_used(h) = max(0, G_forecast(h) + w(h) × ΔG)

What this means: MTG is a nowcast correction, not a three-day weather model. It improves the current hour and the next few hours. After that, the correction fades to zero and the Open-Meteo forecast remains authoritative.

How the solar estimate is calculatedIrradiance, cloud cover and temperatureFormula
USED IRRADIANCE—

Open-Meteo surface irradiance forecast.

CLOUD COVER—

Already reflected in forecast irradiance; used as context and never applied twice.

AIR / CELL TEMPERATURE— / —

Cell temperature adjusts the expected PV conversion efficiency.

ESTIMATED PV OUTPUT—

Limited to the scenario’s assumed 450 kW simultaneous AC output.

G_used = G_forecast + v_MTG × (G_observed − G_forecast)T_cell = T_air + ((45 − 20) / 800) × G_usedP_PV = min(450 kW, 563 kWp × G_used / 1000 × 0.82 × [1 − 0.0035 × (T_cell − 25°C)])

Why cloud cover is not multiplied into the last formula: Open-Meteo shortwave radiation is the irradiance reaching the surface after forecast cloud effects. Applying cloud cover again would underestimate solar production.

Open-Meteo forward forecast

Next three days

Hourly irradiance, cloud cover and temperature converted into expected production for the scenario’s assumed 563 kWp neighbourhood PV capacity.

72-hour outlook
Loading the next three Open-Meteo forecast days…

iThe satellite check can refine the first few hours. Days 1–3 use the latest Open-Meteo weather-model forecast and update whenever the feed refreshes.

Decision logic

Direction first. Risk second. Action third.

The dashboard keeps formulas out of the way while retaining a transparent audit trail.

01NET FLOWLoad − corrected PV

Positive = IMPORT
Negative = EXPORT

02DUAL RISKScore both directions

Roverall = max(Rimport, Rexport)

03AUTOMATIC ACTIONHIGH · IMPORT

Discharge ≈30 kW · overall 78%

How risk is calculatedBinary thresholds, validity and data confidenceExpand
Binary and directional

Each valid feature is either 0 or 1. Fixed operational weights turn crossed thresholds into a directional score. A flow at or above 100% of the configured transformer limit forces a HIGH classification. Disabled, stale or unavailable inputs are removed from the validity set and reduce confidence; they are never interpreted as a safe zero.

R_import = Σ(wᵢ × vᵢ × xᵢ) · R_export = Σ(wᵢ × vᵢ × xᵢ) · R_overall = max(R_import, R_export)

Import risk · 78%

1

Transformer stress410 kVA ≥ configured 400 kVA limit

+28
1

High local demandEvening demand above rolling P80

+20
1

Price synchronisationCoordinated charging pressure detected

+14
1

Insufficient solar preparationNo useful PV contribution in the event window

+8
1

Insufficient discharge flexibilityRelief margin is tight against the 32 kW fleet limit

+8

Export risk · 24%

0

Corrected PV surplusNo material surplus in the worked import window

+0
0

Low local consumptionDemand is elevated, not low

+0
0

Reverse-flow stressEstimated flow direction is IMPORT

+0
1

Insufficient empty capacityLimited headroom remains for a possible export event

+24
Risk stateBattery strategyOperational purpose
LOWNormal optimisation

Self-consumption and price optimisation while preserving grid headroom.

MEDIUM · IMPORTReserve SoC · avoid charging

Prepare energy before the peak and hold discharge capacity.

HIGH · IMPORTDischarge the fleet

Bring estimated import below the configured limit.

MEDIUM · EXPORTCreate battery headroom

Make empty capacity available before the solar peak.

HIGH · EXPORTCharge from PV surplus

Absorb solar and bring reverse flow below the configured limit.

Evaluated alternativesNot part of the live control stack2 sources
C

CAMS Solar RadiationHistorical / validation only

Approximately D−1 delayed, so it does not improve a 15-minute live control loop.

S

SolcastEvaluated · not selected

Commercial licence quotation for the required use was approximately €8,500/year.